By: Staff Writer
March 4, 2022
An international security and policy expert issues a dire warning for Central America that with the re-introduction of hard lined, left-wing politics, people should expect more instability and strife.
Ivan Briscoe, Program Director, Latin America and Caribbean for the International Crisis Group, told Caribbean Plus via email: “Central America remains a region that is profoundly unequal, socially conservative, prone to corruption and politically bound to the status quo.
“That said, we seem to be observing the end of a long 30-year period of relative political tranquillity that followed the end of the region’s civil wars in the late 1980s, an era that brought stability but failed to meet the demands for economic growth, equity and security that the peoples of the region clamoured for. The results have been rising criminal violence, protests, mass emigration and most recently, political turmoil.”
Nothing has been evidenced with the recent Honduran elections in November of last year where a presidential candidate was arrested on suspicion of murder and drug trafficking charges along with an opposition being mayor murdered.
In Costa Rica there is political deadlock from the presidential elections of this past February with the country going to run-off elections to finally decide its leader. From a country with clear and identifiable political patterns, this deadlock came as a surprise despite the polls leading into the elections showing a very tight race.
Mr Briscoe also said: “There is no single model of government now in Central America, though each of the governments seek in their own ways to represent a solution to core public grievances – made worse by the pandemic – and a defence of national interest.
“The problem of course is that many have come to power by seeking to supplant weakened party or political systems. El Salvador’s Bukele presents himself as a saviour who clears out the dead wood of the old two-party system. In the case of Nicaragua, Ortega has relied increasingly on the coercive apparatus of the police and courts to survive rather than on voluntary loyalty; this is why he preferred to jail opponents and rig elections rather than hold free and fair polls last year.
He continued, “Honduras has a new, left-leaning government backed by a clear majority in the polls, but as the arguments over the leadership of Congress showed in January, its foundations are relatively weak. Guatemala, meanwhile, remains saddled with a corrupt political elite and prone to bouts of public frustration.”
These are dark and depressing political moments for Central America at the moment. It seems as if the region of reverting to the old Cold War darkness when there is no longer a Soviet Union to fight anymore for the United States, which used to keep these countries torn apart and divided politically.
Mr Briscoe also said: “In short, these governments depend fundamentally on either their popularity – which in the case of Bukele is very high – or their ability to stifle the effects of their unpopularity, as in Nicaragua and Guatemala.
“Their power bases are not secure, but there are no clear opposition movements with the cohesion and momentum that are able to challenge them, nor are there signs that the armed forces wish to rise up or would be embraced if they were to do so, nor does the U.S. seem interested in intervening more deeply in the region (although this might change somewhat following the Ukraine invasion).
“In this context, a lurch to deepening authoritarian rule is of course a major concern, especially if serious challenges to the rulers of Nicaragua and El Salvador do emerge. Both are likely to respond with force and make recourse to emergency measures in that case.”