By David Fleshler, Robin Webb and Steve Svekis
South Florida Sun-Sentinel
August 30, 2022
The first tropical depression in two months appears likely to form this week, as an unusually quiet Atlantic hurricane season shows signs of getting into higher gear.
An area of stormy weather in the central Atlantic stands a 80% chance of organizing itself into a tropical depression “at the very least” over the next five days — with a 50% chance over the next 48 hours — according to an update issued at 8 p.m. Monday by the National Hurricane Centre. A depression is the weakest form of tropical cyclone, a rotating low-pressure system that’s classified as a depression, tropical storm or hurricane, depending on its wind speed.
The system still lacks the well-defined centre characteristic of tropical cyclones, according to the hurricane centre. It’s expected to move west, and then west-northwest, at 5 to 10 mph toward the islands of the north-eastern Caribbean over the next few days, the hurricane centre said. If it reaches tropical storm strength, which requires wind speeds of at least 39 mph, it would be named Danielle.
The system is one of two low-pressure areas being monitored for possible cyclone formation, as the Atlantic settles into the traditional peak period for the formation of storms. The most active part of hurricane season is from mid-August to the end of October, with Sept. 10 the statistical peak of the season.
“It looks like September could really kick off an active period in the tropics. A steady wave train of energy rolling off Africa into the tropical Atlantic is expected to keep things active for a while across the Atlantic basin,” said AccuWeather meteorologist Brandon Buckingham.
The increased activity results partly from a decline of atmospheric factors that had suppressed storm formation for the past month, according to a report from AccuWeather, the private forecasting service. These storm-suppressing factors include dry air and wind shear — the changes of wind direction with altitude that can tear up storms.
“Conditions are changing in the tropical Atlantic,” said the report by AccuWeather senior meteorologist Alex Sosnowski. “In the past week, tropical disturbances, also known as tropical waves, that move westward from Africa have shown more vigor, and an area of stiff breezes, which forecasters refer to as strong wind shear, has prevented development during much of the summer has been wavering in part of the basin.
“Similarly, vast stretches of dry air over the heart of the basin are now becoming riddled by pockets of moisture, which is a necessary ingredient for tropical systems to thrive.”
The first tropical depression in two months appears likely to form this week, as an unusually quiet Atlantic hurricane season shows signs of getting into higher gear. (National Hurricane Centre/Courtesy)
A second area of interest is a tropical wave expected to emerge off Africa’s west coast by Tuesday and has been given a 40% chance of cyclone formation.
A disturbance in the north-western Caribbean and one in the Atlantic north of Bermuda now have a 0% chance of development, the hurricane centre said in its 8 p.m. update.
There have only been three named storms so far this season — Alex, Bonnie and Colin — with the last one, Colin, dissipating on July 3, meaning this 57-day streak is the third-longest time in Atlantic hurricane season history without a named storm since 1995.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued its updated hurricane season predictions earlier this month.
NOAA predicts 14 to 20 named storms and six to 10 hurricanes with three to five being major, meaning Category 3 or higher.
Hurricane season ends Nov. 30.