By: Staff Writer
June 20, 2023
The National Hurricane Centre declared Tropical Storm Bret formed at 5 p.m. EST on Monday, the second of the young Atlantic season behind Hurricane Arlene that formed in the Gulf Coast. Located about halfway between the coast of Africa and the eastern Caribbean Sea, the system is likely to intensify, and it could approach or impact the Lesser Antilles as a hurricane by the weekend.
Bret is travelling due North-West at about 60mph and may reach 80mph by Wednesday at 2 p.m. The NHC paints two possible scenarios that Bret could develop:
Scenario #1: The system could move faster and stay on a more west to west-northwest track. If that were to happen, it would arrive in the Lesser Antilles late this week.
Scenario #2: The system could gain strength more quickly, move more slowly but also curl to the northwest or north, avoiding the Lesser Antilles into the central Atlantic.
Not only are there track uncertainties, but also intensity unknowns, especially given the weird nature of this happening east of the Antilles in June.
For now, those in the Lesser Antilles should simply monitor the progress of this system.
For a storm to develop where Bret did during June is historic. In fact, it formed farther east than any tropical storm on record this early in the year. It also became one of the earliest named storms on record in the Atlantic’s MDR, or Main Development Region. The MDR is the region between the Caribbean and Cabo Verde where long-lived, intense storms can grow out of disturbances rolling off the coast of Africa. Usually, storms don’t form in the MDR until around August.
While atmospheric chaos plants the seeds of storm growth, record-warm ocean temperatures over the Atlantic have created an environment ripe for this system’s intensification. Also, while satellite imagery indicates some patches of dry air east of the Lesser Antilles, some computer forecast models suggest these systems may be able to stay in a pocket of more humid air for at least some time during their trip westward. Dry air typically inhibits tropical development.
The islands of the Lesser Antilles, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Dominica, Saint Lucia, Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, Saint Martin, Anguilla and the Virgin Islands should all prepare for Tropical Storm force winds at the very least.
Take all precaution with getting your candles, canned foods and ensuring that your electronic devices are charged to capacity in the event power is disrupted if Bret makes landfall. Be prepare d or be sorry.