December 5, 2023
President Nicolas Maduro would be crazy to invade Guyana’s Essequibo region. He won’t do it. Think about it, he does not need a referendum to act unilaterally. He can just order the armed forces. He has not done so and probably will not do so now that he has seen the outcry from the rest of the civilized world.
But what if Maduro does invade Guyana, what would it mean for the rest of the world? It will most likely mean bad news for President Joe Biden for the 2024 elections, for sure. He has allowed wars from Eastern Europe, to the Middle East and now one right on his doorstep, his presidency won’t survive.
Secondly, global oil markets won’t be affected because Guyana does not produce enough oil to destabilize oil markets and Venezuela has not been pumping oil for a few years now. So, the oil market will remain at status quo, at the very least
Thirdly, international trade may be slightly affected. All because more stress will be put on the Panama Canal, which is already suffering drought. Goods, instead of having to bypass the Panama canal through the cape of Argentina, will now have to sail through the challenged canal and that may not be an easy, timely or safe thing to do now.
I hope I am right that he won’t invade. Let’s continue to vigilant.