By: Staff Writer
August 10, 2021
The National Hurricane Centre Miami is advising that the Caribbean and Southern Florida is in the path of tropical storm #6 for the year with the possibility of it upgrading to tropical storm Fred.
The NHC said in an update on the agency’s website: “Showers and thunderstorms associated with the area of low pressure located about 100 miles east-northeast of Barbados continue to show signs of organization. However, recent satellite wind data indicates that the system currently lacks a well-defined centre. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form later today or tonight while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
The disturbance is forecast to move through portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight, then move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday, and Hispaniola on Wednesday. Tropical storm watches or warnings could be required this afternoon with shorter-than-normal lead times for portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. In addition, heavy rains and flooding are likely for the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress of this system.
Reported in the Orlando Sentinel, “Showers and thunderstorms in association with an elongated low pressure area located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles have diminished. Environmental conditions have become unfavourable and development of this system is no longer expected.
The system’s potential track shows it could reach South Florida in the next four to five days. South Florida could be affected by heavy rain and potential flooding later this week and into the weekend, according to the National Weather Service.
“‘At this point it’s way too early to know the specifics in terms of telling how strong the system will be,’ said Robert Frye, senior meteorologist for the National Weather Service.
“‘Right now the forecast is generally west-northwest toward our area by sometime late into the week, and the weekend, especially,’ he said.
“Frye said there are mitigating factors that could hinder the system’s development on its approach toward Florida.
“‘You’ve got … a lot of dry air and some land interaction with the Lesser and Greater Antilles,’ which is where the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea meet.
“When systems hit land, they often slow and terrain can have a storm-shredding effect. Having left the ocean, they lose contact with the warm water that provides their energy.”