By: Staff Writer
April 2, 2024
The Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) said in its recent Caribbean Climate Outlook Newsletter that the region for April to December said that “record warm” North Atlantic heat is to be expected.
The newsletter also said: “the region is set to enter an intense Heat Season with recurrent heatwaves, as well as an early start to an intense wet season. Shower intensity and frequency are likely to sharply rise, resulting in high potential for flooding, flash floods, cascading hazards and associated impacts in most places, except the ABC Islands. Unknown is how frequent incursions of dry, dust-laden Saharan air into the Caribbean will be. If very frequent, the period will further be characterised by erratic shower activity — interspersed with frequent dry spells — and further buildup of ongoing drought, record-breaking heat and wildfire potential.
From April to June, there is a potential for flash floods and the “cascading impacts arising from runoff during intense rainfall events will be high, particularly in mountainous areas and in the Guianas.”
The July to September, 2024 period in particular, marks the summer portion of the Caribbean wet season and heat season. The tropical North Atlantic Ocean is forecast to remain unseasonably warm, whereas a La Niña event is increasingly likely to be in place by August. Unusually high air temperatures and humidity, with the occurrence of significant to potentially record-breaking heat stress expected to evolve. The risk of severe weather impacts from tropical cyclones or other shower activity, including flooding, flash floods, and cascading impacts is expected to be even higher than usual, amounting to unusually copious wet season rainfall. Historically, 2010 was a comparable year in terms of the coincidence of extreme heat, rainfall and floods and an active hurricane season.”
The newsletter added: “Moderate (or worse) short-term drought has developed in French Guiana, Grenada, Guyana, Martinique, southwest Puerto Rico, Suriname, and Tobago; long-term drought has developed in southern Belize, northern Cuba, Dominica, Grenada, southern Puerto Rico, St. Vincent, eastern and northern Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago.
“Short-term drought is evolving in southern French Guiana, and may possibly develop or continue in The Bahamas, Grand Cayman and Central and Eastern Cuba.
“Long-term drought is of immediate concern in southern French Guiana, is evolving in southwest Belize, Grand Cayman, parts of Central Cuba, central and northern French Guiana, northern Guyana, southwest Puerto Rico, Suriname, and might possibly develop or continue in ABC islands, northern Belize, Central Cuba, Dominica, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago.”