By: Staff Writer
May 3, 2024
The Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) said in its recent Caribbean Climate Outlook Newsletter that the region for May to July said that a (near-)record warm Tropical North Atlantic Ocean is forecast amid shower intensity and a “high potential for flooding and flash floods.”
CARICICF said that between May to July: “A return to normal ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and a (near-)record warm Tropical North Atlantic Ocean are forecast. Therefore, the region enters an intense Heat Season with recurrent heatwaves, and a possibly early start to an intense wet season. Shower intensity and frequency are likely to sharply rise, resulting in high potential for flooding, flash floods, cascading hazards and associated impacts in most places, except the ABC Islands. Unknown is how frequent incursions of dry, dust-laden Saharan air into the Caribbean will be. If very frequent, the period will further be characterised by erratic shower activity — but frequent dry spells — and further buildup of ongoing drought, increasing heat and wildfire potential in May.”
The report continued: “This period marks the peak of the Caribbean wet season, as well as the peak and late parts of the Caribbean heat season. An unseasonably warm Tropical North Atlantic, combined with likely La Niña conditions are forecasted. Consequently, unusually high air temperatures and humidity are expected, along with the occurrence of significant to potentially record-breaking heat stress. The risk of severe weather impacts from tropical cyclones or other shower activity, including flooding, flash floods, and cascading impacts is expected to be even higher than usual, amounting to unusually copious wet season rainfall. Historically, 2010 was a comparable year in terms of the extreme heat, rainfall, floods and an active hurricane season developing on the back of a drought. For temperature and precipitation outlooks for ASO 2024, please visit rcc.cimh.edu.bb/caricof-climate-outlooks.
However, a significant unknown factor remains: the frequency of incursions of dry, dust-laden Saharan air into the Caribbean. Should these incursions occur frequently, the region may experience erratic shower activity, compounded by dry spells.
This scenario could exacerbate ongoing drought conditions, elevate temperatures, and heighten the risk of wildfires, particularly in May.
CariCOF reports that long-term drought conditions persist or are developing in various regions, including southwest Belize, Grand Cayman, French Guiana, northern Guyana, Suriname, and Trinidad.
Moreover, short-term drought is evolving in western and southeast Belize, with the potential for further development in other areas such as eastern and northwest Belize and central French Guiana.