COMMENTARY: The Local Government Election Prediction: Trinidad & Tobago

By: Paul Sarran

August 8, 2023

The upcoming local government elections in Trinidad present an opportunity for various candidates to compete for available districts. In the year 2019, both the People’s National Movement (PNM) and the United National Congress (UNC) obtained an equal number of corporations, resulting in a tie, with each party securing 7 corporations out of the total of 14. This observation suggests that the nation is really experiencing a significant level of division, and this division persists in the present time. The local government election has been scheduled for August 14, 2023, in accordance with the recent ruling issued by the Privy Council. According to (Privy Council Rules Local Govt Extension Unlawful, n.d.) The Privy Council has invalidated a decision made by the Government to prolong the tenure of local government members by one year. Recently, at the United Kingdom Supreme Court Building in London, England, the Privy Council rendered a judgement in favour of an appeal brought by political activist Ravi Balgobin Maharaj. The appeal challenged the dismissal of a case, claiming that the action taken was unlawful. In a prevailing verdict, a panel of three law lords, headed by Lord Robert Reed, the President of the UK Supreme Court, determined that High Court Judge Jacqueline Wilson and the Court of Appeal erred in their dismissal of Maharaj’s case. Two members of the House of Lords, who hold positions as legal experts, concurred with the rationale put forward by the lower courts and subsequently delivered a dissenting opinion. The consequence entails the necessity of promptly initiating local government elections.

Today, candidates for local office use a general election strategy in their campaigns in the hopes of winning over voters with promises of improved services and a government that is more accountable. They hope to do this by implementing a general election method.

Examining the time span from 2015 to the present, it can be observed that the ruling People’s National Movement (PNM) has been in power for nearly eight years. Furthermore, the PNM has exercised authority over seven corporations within the realm of local government. The approach applied by the PNM towards the electorate can be characterized as a reformist government strategy. This approach signifies a departure from the traditional reliance on central government for funding and approvals, enabling local government to promptly address the concerns and requests put forth by communities and districts.

The implementation of the property tax in light of the prevailing economic conditions is unlikely to provide favourable outcomes for the ruling P.N.M., particularly as the nation struggles with the escalating cost of living. The prioritization of national issues has surpassed that of local government reform.

The UNC is employing a strategic approach aimed at securing victory in the upcoming local government elections through the deliberate mishandling of economic and social matters such as the rise in criminal activity is adversely impacting the governing People’s National Movement (P.N.M.). The leadership of Captain Gary Griffith in his role as a senior law enforcement officer has been widely regarded as a significant and influential period. However, subsequent to his departure, the People’s National Movement (PNM) has encountered challenges in effectively addressing the issue of crime, despite the utilization of persuasive language.

Inflation has had a significant influence on a substantial portion of the population since the cost of living continues to increase. The working class, being a significant portion of the support base of the P.N.M, is in dire need of some form of alleviation.

The reemergence of dissenting factions has been facilitated by the amalgamation of political parties that are in opposition to the People’s National Movement (P.N.M.), along with the return of Jack Warner, which has the potential to weaken the P.N.M.’s prevailing influence in local governance. In addition, the local government election scheduled for August 14, 2023 is expected to witness the victory of parties led by the United National Congress (UNC) due to various factors. These factors include the existence of limited margins and variations in voting patterns within the districts affiliated with the People’s National Movement (PNM), as well as a declining confidence in the PNM’s leadership.

As an aspiring political scientist and actively involved in social and political activism, my prediction for the local government election outcome would be as follows: the People’s National Movement (PNM) is expected to secure 5 corporations, while the coalition led by the United National Congress (UNC-Led) is projected to obtain 9 corporations. 

The Code is Yellow

(Paul Sarran is a student pursuing a Political Science degree at the University of the West Indies OC in St. Augustine, Trinidad & Tobago.

He is currently in his final years of college and has intentions to become a Political Scientist or an Independent Senator)

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