By: Rebecca Theodore
March 14, 2025
The United States and the Caribbean have long shared a close economic and strategic relationship. However, China’s trading and investment relations in the Caribbean have grown exponentially over the last two decades, outperforming the United States as the number one trading partner. As an important political and economic force, China is now a counterweight to United States hegemony in the Caribbean.
Undeniably, China is representing itself as a reliable substitute to the United States by its economic and diplomatic presence in the Caribbean. China is a major source of development aid for Caribbean states. On the other hand, China’s soft power over the Caribbean is now presenting several geopolitical and economic challenges for the United States.
But how did it get there?
Firstly, it is time that the United States come to the understanding that Caribbean states are no longer self-satisfied players. Into the 21st century, the Monroe Doctrine is censured, reestablished and re-explained.
According to House Foreign Committee reports, Caribbean trade with China has increased from $1 billion in 2002 to $8 billion in 2019, with an estimated $6.1 billion in Chinese exports and $1.9 billion in imports. As a member of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and the Caribbean Development Bank (CDB) and an observer at the Organization of American States (OAS), China has invested over $10 billion in six Caribbean countries between 2005 and 2022 focusing on tourism, transportation, extractive metals, agriculture, and energy sectors.
At this stage, it is important to note, that it is this Caribbean China liaison that now provides expanded options, confidence and space for Caribbean states to scheme their external relations. It is China’s Maritime Silk Road Initiative (MSRI) that now promote interconnectivity and economic mass among Caribbean states, thus making China the major source of development aid for Caribbean states.
While it is true, that Caribbean states are consumers of US products, from agriculture and technology to financial services and tourism-related goods, evidence also points to the fact, that Caribbean states are not competitors to US industries. On the contrary, increase in trade between Caribbean countries and China has not displaced trade in goods with the United States.
Despite the fact, that low growth rates, fiscal stress, elevated debt levels and declines in international reserves places serious constraints on the economies of Caribbean states, United States trade surplus in goods with Caribbean states still point at $7.4 billion and $5.8 billion in 2023, and 2024 respectively.
Indeed, assessment of United States trade policies with the Caribbean as a means of increasing stronger US trade services sparks new concerns; yet regional and international cooperation and the means to address them are urgently needed.
Secondly, although critics admit that China’s model of development duplicate traditional patterns of exploitation and unsustainable patterns and its presence and strategies may be hindering Caribbean unity, one thing remains certain.– Caribbean countries are in alarming need of infrastructure development. Therefore, Caribbean countries are happy to accept assistance in the form of Chinese investment and loans.
For one, China investment in the Caribbean island of Jamaica over the last 20 years has exceeded 2.1 billion dollars with a bilateral trade volume of 816 million. More significantly, the Chinese government 2016 white paper reiterates its desire to strengthen cooperation on the basis of equality and mutual benefit in trade and investment, agriculture, energy, infrastructure, manufacturing, and technological innovation. Moreover, China has also dedicated a significant level of attention to regional security engagement in the Caribbean.
Thirdly, the United States long period of neglect of Caribbean states is further creating important strategic opportunities for China. Even where the United States continues to contribute in multilateral institutions, its diminishing clout in the Caribbean makes it impossible for the US to oppose China extending its tentacles in the Caribbean especially in terms of economic intelligence.
Elaborating further, the US dramatic shift in foreign policy is now a cause for greater concern. President Donald Trump’s erasure of climate change from federal policies and withdrawal of the U.S. from global commitments like the Paris Agreement forces the United States to look into its deceptive mirrors and understand that geopolitical competition in the Caribbean is now at an all time high.
In this context, freezes to foreign aid, the gutting of the U.S.’s leading humanitarian agency, and the ramp up in deportations of undocumented migrants, is another frightening portrait that propels Jamaica prime minister Holness to contend that US policy shifts may also present new regional opportunities.
Albeit, the United States must now understand China’s presence in the Caribbean and use public diplomacy to strengthen cooperation in the areas of health and education and national security.
More progressively, the United States should help build and strengthen the Caribbean’s institutional capacity. The United States must reaffirm its long-term interest in a strong partnership with the Caribbean based on joint priorities that can yield tangible results.
US- Caribbean – China relations is confronting its most daunting challenges. The US baseless debt trap narrative is not only losing strategic policy engagements ground in the Caribbean, but current US trend foreshadows worsening relations over the long term.
And the threat of a new Cold War to the Caribbean region looms.
Forthwith, the United States must now attune its foreign policy toward the Caribbean to optimise its interest because the efficiency, energy, growth and democracy of the US is no longer admired in the Caribbean.
Thus, if “geopolitical tensions fuels uncertainty” then dangerous declines in United States Caribbean China relations demands serious corrective measures, or Chinese outward foreign direct investments and loans will continue to play a major role in strengthened ties with the Caribbean.
A seasoned journalist, Rebecca Theodore has an experience of over 20 years working with leading international media brands . She writes extensively on national security, politics, human rights and the environment . Contact rebethd@aol.com
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