By: Staff Writer
February 9, 2021
A top Cuban policy expert says the Biden administration has a chance for a quid-pro-quo with the Cuban government on terrorism policy change.
John S. Kavulich, president of the U.S.-Cuba Trade and Economic Council, Inc., headquartered in New York, told Caribbean Magazine Plus about what should be done with the terrorism state designation the outgoing US president, Donald Trump, gave to Cuba and what the new Joe Biden administration should do to correct it.
He said: “The Obama administration initiated changes to the United States-Cuba bilateral commercial, economic, and political relationship. The Trump administration from June 2017 to January 2021 selectively reversed much, but not all of changes implemented from December 2014 to January 2017 by the Obama Administration. “
“The Biden administration has the benefit of reviewing the distance between the objectives of President Obama and the objectives of President Trump and then select what to resurrect, what to change, and what to initiate.
“The Trump administration, by returning Cuba to the List of State Sponsors of Terrorism, has provided to the Biden Administration two needed moments: First, time to decide what to do with Cuba- the designation operates like a brake which requires time to release because it has many moving parts- including notification to the United States Congress. Second, an opportunity for a quid pro quo from Cuba- the Biden Administration can say to Havana, “We can’t unilaterally remove it if we can’t show Congress something in return.” For Havana, its response will be, “Do what you will.” They will also ask themselves, “How are we on the list while Venezuela isn’t. China isn’t. Russia isn’t.”
“Certainly, the optics of Cuba’s behaviour in 2021 is different than it was on 17 December 2014 when President Obama announced profound changes to the bilateral relationship. Today, the Biden Administration finds a Cuba brilliantly connected in throughout the global discourse to Venezuela courtesy of the Trump Administration. A government of Venezuela that withstood four years of the Trump Administration with a primary result having gained a PhD in how to evade sanctions.
“For President Biden, Secretary of State Blinken, and National Security Advisor Sullivan, the behaviour of the [Nicolas] Maduro administration in Caracas is far more important to the United States than are decisions by the Diaz-Canel Administration in Havana.
“What has happened and continues to happen in Venezuela is a contagion impacting meaningfully Brazil and Colombia while drawing in China, Cuba, Iran, Russia, and Turkey. Cuba, however, to the United States remains stable politically, remains non-consequential commercially and economically, and is a key, not the key to resolving important issues relating to Venezuela.
“There are also ten members (two Democrats and seven Republicans) of the United States Congress (three in the Senate and seven in the House of Representatives) who identify as of Cuban descent including as chairmen of an influential committee and an influential sub-committee.
“Important to appreciate the changes initiated, re-initiated, re-calibrated, recycled, and overdue are not viewed as a quid pro quo by the Diaz-Canel Administration to the Biden Administration.
“The decisions taken by the Diaz-Canel Administration are designed for survival, not political suicide.
“The Biden Administration knows what it wants to do- which is less than a 100% change from what the Trump Administration did to the Obama Administration decisions, the challenge is crafting what it wants to do in a fashion to withstand political blow-back from some members of the United States Congress.
“The unknown remains Venezuela. Thus far, the Biden Administration has reported in read-outs to have mentioned Venezuela in one telephone call and not Cuba during conversations with country leadership- including those with France.
He ultimate said the process for removing Cuba from the List of State Sponsors of Terrorism provides the Biden Administration with time to evaluate decisions by the Diaz-Canel Administration and to quickly seek to extract more. “The focus, however, for the Biden Administration remains Venezuela rather than Cuba,” said Mr Kavulich
He continued, “Vietnam has some similarities, but one huge difference- Vietnam settled the claims, Vietnam wanted to restore relations, the Vietnamese community, primarily residing in California, were pro-engagement. And there were John McCain and John Kerry, both veterans of the Vietnam War, who were in the United States Senate and promoted re-engagement.”
“Vietnam’s Communist Party years ago recognized what it needed to do to survive and did it. Cuba’s Communist Party knows what it needs to survive but won’t do it.”
Mr Kavulih feels that: “Cuba will mirror the Vietnam model; officials in Havana would always push back. In 2021, this is now precisely where they are headed.”
“The decisions by the Diaz-Canel Administration to reunify the currencies and expand the range of the semi-independent, re-emerging private sector are significant, are serious, are perilous because the results are unknown- and the government of Cuba since 1959 has despised unknowns.”
“What determines the elasticity for the reforms is the level of commercial, economic, and political support Cuba receives from other countries. The less support, the most elastic, the more profound, the more irreversible will be the reforms. Given that outside support is unlikely, the result will be energizing for the citizens of Cuba.”
Signaling the intention of the Cuba government is key, he also said: “There remains an aged group in leadership who believe, or strive to believe the traditional commercial, economic, and political model can survive and will survive if it has the strength to await again support from other countries. And the Biden Administration will provide opportunities for just enough financial support where reforms may be limited. They are delusional.
“The Diaz-Canel Administration, though not perhaps President Diaz-Canel, remain committed to the preservation of the status-quo. Management of companies affiliated with the Revolutionary Armed Forces (FAR) of Cuba are far more proactive about commercial and economic change than senior leadership of many members of the Communist Party of Cuba.”
“There will be what has become tradition for the government of Cuba- permit something, watch how it impacts the country, announce investigations into misuse, add regulations designed to constrain success. A sort of… pre-wash (announcement), wash (implementation), rinse (monitor and investigate), dry (retain what is least problematic).”
“From the Trump administration baseline, the Biden Administration will be retaining the objective but with less strident implementation.”
“As for what was anticipated by Cuba advocates, they may be disappointed. However, those who paid attention to what was said by candidate Biden and to statements by those close to candidate Biden, there was never going to be Obama Redux.”
“Thus far in public, The White House and Department of State continue to repeat the initial statement about the review of Cuba policy and the guideposts. There is specific language that projects what they have, internally, agreed should be a focus.”
“The unknown, and the Biden Administration will have many, is what happens during the next weeks and months relating to Venezuela.”
“Notice how few read-outs of telephone calls by President Biden, NSA Sullivan, and Secretary of State Blinken have mentioned Cuba or Venezuela.”
“The two most valuable processes the Diaz-Canel Administration can use as carrots for engagement from the Biden Administration are first, completing the unification of the currencies and establishing a consistent floating exchange rate and second, energizing opportunities for small businesses to operate independently.”
“If the Biden administration believes the Diaz-Canel Administration is prepared to do what is difficult, maintain the processes despite challenges, then far easier for Washington to create opportunities for engagement.”
“The key is the Biden administration must believe the Diaz-Canel Administration is serious about restructuring the economy. The only way to show that seriousness is to endure the pains of transformation.”