April 18, 2025
Thank God the Trump pulled back on the China port fee plans for the Caribbean. There is mercy. But there will still be port fees for US bound Chinese ships, so Trump has not taken his foot off of the Chinese necks just yet. We don’t blame him either.
But for now, Caribbean folk can enjoy their cheap Chinese made products for now as Trump tries to right the ship on this China trade imbalance.
Our estimation is, China cannot outlast America in this war. Regardless of how much China retaliates, they will not be able to outspend America or provide a dynamic enough economy that would last over three years if tariffs remain high.
China depends on those manufacturing plants in China to make those cheap products we so greedily consume. If Americans, who are the world’s largest consumers, are not spending money the way they used to and if getting Chinese goods into America stays tough, they will have to capitulate or else risk civil unrest and down goes the China State government.
China’s thinly made economy will start to crack and it will be such a shame after all the work done since the 1960s to bring it to the strength it is at now. However, successive Chinese government’s have resisted the economic reforms that would not only allow for a more dynamic economy beyond the state ran economic model, but they have thumbed their noses at true free trade, which would have created a more diverse economy that would have shielded it from an attack like the Trump administration has put on them. The Chinese were warned years ago to be more open and develop a more detailed market oriented economy and they insisted they would rather try to get the whole hog. It is backfiring.
Now what is China going to do? Nothing aside from make the reforms to their trade regime they were told to do from the late 1990’s at the very least.