March 26, 2025
As former U.S. President Donald Trump signals the possible reimposition of sweeping tariffs come April 2nd —including a proposed 25% tariff on countries buying oil from Venezuela, such as Cuba – Caribbean and Latin American trade experts are closely watching the potential ripple effects across the region.
While the full extent of these proposed tariffs remains uncertain, one thing is clear: the implications could be far-reaching, both directly and indirectly, for Caribbean economies.
Tourism
Tourism remains the lifeblood of many Caribbean economies, particularly from the United States and Canada. If new tariffs spark inflation or economic slowdowns in these countries, fewer tourists could afford international vacations—translating into decreased arrivals and lower tourism revenue for the region.
Disruptions In Trade & Supply Chains
Many Caribbean nations depend heavily on imported goods, many of which are routed through or from the U.S. If tariffs lead to changes in U.S. imports – especially from China – it could disrupt established supply chains, affecting the availability and cost of products in Caribbean markets.
However, some Caribbean nations with manufacturing capabilities may find a silver lining. As U.S. companies look to diversify their suppliers away from China, there could be opportunities for Caribbean exporters to step in and meet demand – particularly for products that can be sold duty-free to U.S. consumers, including cruise ship passengers.
Impact on Imports and Exporters
GCMAM, a regional trade consultancy, notes that the implications are complex:
Rising Import Costs: Caribbean importers sourcing goods from the U.S. that originate in targeted countries may face higher costs, which are likely to be passed on to local consumers.
Export Pressures: Caribbean exporters could also be affected if their goods face retaliatory tariffs, reducing their competitiveness in the U.S. market. Already, countries like Colombia and Panama have been caught in the geopolitical crosshairs.
Supply Chain Delays: Disruptions in global shipping and logistics could result in delays and cost increases, especially for businesses dependent on just-in-time imports of raw materials.
Currency Volatility: Trade tensions typically roil foreign exchange markets. For Caribbean nations whose currencies are pegged to the U.S. dollar or whose economies are highly trade-dependent, this could add further cost pressures.
Online Shoppers in the Crossfire
Tariffs could also impact the many Caribbean consumers who rely on U.S. delivery addresses for online shopping. Among the potential effects:
Higher Prices & Shipping Costs: Goods may become more expensive, and carriers might adjust their rates in response to global disruptions.
Customs Delays: Increased inspection and regulation could slow down delivery times.
Retaliatory Tariffs: If affected countries strike back with their own tariffs on U.S. goods, it could limit access to popular products Caribbean consumers regularly purchase online.
How Caribbean Firms Can Prepare
GCMAM advises several strategies for resilience:
Diversify Supply Chains: Reducing dependence on a single country or supplier can minimize risk. Alternative sourcing options could even offer better pricing, especially if conducted in accessible currencies.
Stay Informed: Caribbean businesses should monitor actual policy changes carefully—not just media speculation. Working with knowledgeable customs brokers and trade experts will be critical.
Leverage Trade Agreements: Regional businesses should maximize access to free trade deals that reduce or eliminate tariffs with alternative markets.
Optimize Shipping & Logistics: Use reliable courier services that offer customs expertise and real-time tracking to avoid disruptions.
Advocacy & Dialogue: Engaging through industry associations and diplomatic channels ensures Caribbean voices are represented in trade talks.
The Need for Regional Solutions
Alicia Nicholls, international trade specialist and founder of the Caribbean Trade Law Blog, points out that Caribbean manufacturers reliant on U.S. inputs will face higher costs – while end consumers may pay more for everything from American-made food to electronics.
However, she urges the region to use this moment to look inward: “This also makes the case for more intra-Caribbean sourcing. Instead of importing fresh fruit from Florida, why not source more from our neighbors?”
Guyana Voices Concern
Guyana’s President, Dr. Irfaan Ali, has also weighed in, expressing concern about Trump’s proposal to impose tariffs on Chinese-made ships. For countries like Guyana, Suriname, and Trinidad & Tobago, that rely on tankers for oil and gas exports, such policies could raise transportation costs, thereby impacting the cost of goods and energy logistics across the region.
President Ali highlighted the importance of regional dialogue on these issues and confirmed that CARICOM is already initiating high-level discussions with U.S. policymakers, including the White House and Secretary of State, to address shared concerns and mitigate risks.
Conclusion
Trump’s tariffs may be aimed at geopolitical rivals like China, Canada, and Mexico – but their impacts could stretch far into the Caribbean. From tourism and shipping to manufacturing and online retail, the region must stay proactive. Now more than ever, trade specialists, private sector leaders, and regional governments must collaborate, diversify, and advocate to ensure economic resilience in an increasingly uncertain global trade environment.