By: Staff Writer
September 28, 2021
Hurricane Sam is hovering near the Leeward Islands and is picking up strength again says the National Hurricane Centre (NHC) and will pass by land by Thursday without making any landfall.
In a bulletin on Monday, the NHC said: “the centre of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 52.7 West. Sam is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days, with an increase in forward speed beginning on Thursday. A turn to the north is expected by Friday. On the forecast track, Sam will pass well to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands Wednesday and Thursday.”
Out in the middle of the tropical Atlantic, Hurricane Sam is putting on a show. The core of the storm has consolidated into a structure with a tiny eye that should allow strengthening to continue as it crawls to the west in the general direction of the Caribbean islands. It’s already approaching Category 3, and is forecast to go the Category 4.
The bulletin also said, “An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates that the maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
“Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is expected through tonight. Thereafter, fluctuations in intensity are possible through Thursday.
“Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the centre and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The minimum central pressure measured by the aircraft is 957 mb (28.26 inches).”
As to how close Sam will come to the islands as it turns north, the NHC is splitting the difference between the two major computer forecast models – the American GFS and the European Centre model – when it makes its cone. The European insists that Sam will ride down the left side of the cone, coming a bit closer to the northeastern Caribbean islands before the storm turns north. The GFS predicts that Sam will stay farther away.
Even though Sam isn’t a big hurricane, its wind field has expanded. Hurricane-force winds still extend outward up to 30 miles from the centre, but tropical storm-force winds were recorded up to 105 miles from the centre, up from 90 miles away Sunday. Tropical storm-force winds in large hurricanes often extend 130 miles or more from their centres.
The region dodged Hurricane Peter that is slowly fading away out in the central Atlantic and is not supposed to cause any more trouble.
The most trouble Sam is projected to cause is some rough surf as swells generated by Sam will impact the Lesser Antilles for the next several days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the Bahamas mid-to-late week, and then spread to the United States east coast late this week. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.