September 13, 2024
On September 10, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation[1] with the Dominican Republic and considered and endorsed the staff appraisal without a meeting.[2]
A track record of sound policies and institutional policy frameworks has helped the Dominican Republic achieve robust and resilient economic growth and low inflation over the last two decades. Effective policies contributed to a growth moderation that appropriately supported inflation’s rapid and sustained return to its target last year and then aided the recovery, while close monitoring of the financial sector supported macro-financial stability. Planned enhancements to policy frameworks and deepening structural reforms—in particular, comprehensive fiscal and electricity reforms—have the potential to further support stability, competitiveness, and inclusive growth.
Following a strong post-pandemic recovery, economic growth slowed to 2.4 percent in 2023 due to tighter global and domestic financial conditions, weak export demand, and transient domestic factors, largely climate related. The growth slowdown, alongside lower commodity prices, drove inflation’s faster-than-expected convergence to its target range (4±1 percent). In response, the Central Bank of The Dominican Republic (BCRD) cautiously and appropriately reduced its key policy rate, allowing for greater exchange rate flexibility while increasing foreign exchange interventions to smooth daily exchange volatility. Fiscal policy was also prudently adjusted to support the economy. The current account deficit in 2023 narrowed markedly to 3.6 percent of GDP and was fully financed by foreign direct investment (FDI) flows. The financial sector weathered the period of tight monetary policy and slower growth and is adequately capitalized and profitable.
Supported by sound policies and macroeconomic fundamentals, the outlook is favorable despite elevated, mostly global, uncertainty. For 2024 and over the medium term, real GDP growth is projected around its long-term trend of 5 percent, with inflation around its 4 percent target. The current account deficit is projected to gradually narrow to less than 3 percent of GDP and continue being fully financed by FDI. Near-term risks to the outlook—including tighter global financial conditions, geopolitical tensions, and volatile commodity prices—have moderated since last year but remain elevated and tilted to the downside. Over the medium-term risks are more balanced and include upside risks if key domestic reforms are implemented successfully.
Executive Board Assessment
In concluding the 2024 Article IV Consultation with the Dominican Republic, Executive Directors endorsed staff’s appraisal, as follows:
A track record of sound policies and institutional policy frameworks has helped the Dominican Republic achieve robust and resilient economic growth and low inflation over the last two decades. Effective policies contributed to a growth moderation that appropriately supported inflation’s rapid and sustained return to its target in 2023. The authorities provided timely policy support to aid the recovery while monitoring closely the financial sector. The external position improved significantly in 2023 and was broadly in line with fundamentals and desirable policies.
The outlook is favorable despite elevated—mostly global—uncertainty. Real GDP growth is projected around its long-term trend of 5 percent in 2024 and thereafter, with inflation around its (4±1 percent) target. The current account deficit, expected to be fully financed by FDI, is projected to gradually narrow over the medium term. Downside risks dominate in the near‑term term—including tighter for longer monetary policy in the U.S., intensification of regional conflicts, or extreme local weather events—but are broadly balanced over the medium term, including upside risks if reforms are successfully implemented. Existing buffers, further contingency planning, and agile sound policy making can help face adverse shocks.
In the near term, policy priorities should remain focused on maintaining macroeconomic and financial stability, including further flexibility of the exchange rate. Monetary policy normalization can continue, given remaining economic slack and that inflation is firmly within the target range. Efforts to expedite the recapitalization of the central bank to reinforce its autonomy should remain a priority. Endeavors should continue to deepen the FX market, expand the use of hedging mechanisms and limit FXIs to large shocks that lead to destabilizing changes in hedging and financing premia to support further exchange rate flexibility, and therefore further enhance the effectiveness of the inflation targeting framework. While international reserves are broadly adequate based on traditional metrics, further reserve accumulation is necessary to increase buffers to deal with future shocks.
Fiscal policy should remain focused on rebuilding buffers and critical spending needs. The fiscal responsibility law and its planned implementation are welcomed and are important steps to better anchor medium-term policies and further secure debt sustainability. The authorities’ planned gradual fiscal consolidation, consistent with this law, is appropriate to place debt on a firmly downward path and build fiscal buffers. An integral fiscal reform that durably raises revenues—through elimination of tax exemptions and expansion of the tax base—and improves spending efficiency—especially by reducing electricity sector subsidies and untargeted transfers—is imperative. This can provide space for needed development spending (including disaster-resilient infrastructure) to promote inclusive growth.
The financial sector remains resilient and well capitalized, and efforts to bring the regulatory framework up to the latest international standards should continue. The sector weathered well the period of high interest rates and slower growth in 2023. Stress tests show that the banking sector can absorb a range of shocks. Continued close monitoring to contain any build‑up of vulnerabilities remains warranted amid higher for longer interest rates and past increases to credit growth. The modernization of the financial and prudential regulatory framework, alongside the expansion of the macroprudential toolkit, and closing regulatory/supervisory gaps (including for savings and loans cooperatives) will further increase financial sector resilience.
Ongoing efforts to improve public institutions and the business climate are essential to maintaining the strong investment and growth trajectory. The fiscal policy framework, and spending and revenue efficiency can be further enhanced by continued improvements to public financial management and further strengthening of revenue administration. Reforms to education and the labor market, alongside further improvements to social outcomes and implementation of climate adaptation and mitigation policies will be critical to support inclusive and resilient growth and continue to reduce vulnerabilities. The authorities should continue in their efforts to fully implement the Electricity Pact.