By: Cheryle McCloud, USA Today
November 10, 2023
A system of low pressure in the southwestern Caribbean Sea is being watched for potential development, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
Water in the Caribbean Sea is “bath warm,” and conditions may come together to allow a tropical depression or storm to form in the middle to later part of next week, according to AccuWeather forecasters.
Late-season storms do form.
The new system popped up on the Hurricane Center’s tropical outlook map one year after Hurricane Nicole made landfall near Vero Beach as a Category 1 hurricane early on Nov. 10, 2022.
Nicole was a Category 1 hurricane that first made landfall in the northwestern Bahamas before making landfall a second time at 7:45 a.m. along Florida’s east coast.
It later made landfall again as a tropical storm at Cedar Key. It wasn’t done with Florida. A final landfall occurred Nov. 11 at the mouth of the Aucilla River.
Due to its large size, Nicole’s impacts extended from the Bahamas and Florida northward to South Carolina.
Activity this season has been about 30 percent above average, the Hurricane Center said at the end of October.
The average November produces one named tropical system in the Atlantic basin — which includes the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, according to the National Hurricane Center.
AccuWeather forecasters announced Nov. 7 the United States should not see any direct impacts from a tropical system through the rest of the year.
The next name on the list of 2023 Atlantic hurricane season names is Vince.
Here’s the latest update from the NHC as of 1 a.m. Nov. 10:
A broad area of low pressure could form in the southwestern Caribbean Sea by the middle of next week. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter as it meanders over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days: low, 20 percent.
There are several possibilities on where any storm that forms could go, if a storm develops at all.
A weak system could head into Central America.
Wind shear could tear it apart.
But if the system does organize and strengthen in the Caribbean next week, it could move into the southwestern Atlantic, said AccuWeather Tropical Meteorologist Alex DaSilva.
Westerly winds north of the Caribbean could steer a tropical storm or hurricane toward the northeast and likely away from Florida and the southeastern United States.
“The chance of a direct impact on the U.S. by a system in the Caribbean is very low at this time,” DaSilva said.
However, if the system moves near Hispaniola and then over the Bahamas, rough surf and above-normal tides are possible from eastern Florida to the Carolinas.
