By: Staff Writer
August 2, 2024
A disturbance tracking through the northern Caribbean islands could form into Tropical Storm Debby as it tracks toward Florida and the Southeast coast with soaking rainfall, gusty winds and some coastal flooding this weekend into early next week.
Tropical storm watches and warnings could be issued in parts of Florida on Friday ahead of this system’s expected formation. The depression is also moving west of The Bahamas and expected to sweep over Cuba before making landfall in Florida.
Here’s where the disturbance is now and when it could develop. The tropical wave that may eventually become a tropical depression or storm is located near Cuba, or near the “X” in the graphic below, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
It’s been called “Invest 97L”, a term used by the NHC to identify features they are monitoring for potential future development into a tropical depression or storm.
The NHC says development is now likely by this weekend, generally in the shaded area on the map below from the eastern Gulf to near Florida.
Here’s where this system might track in the coming days. A majority of the forecast model guidance has trended toward a track of this system toward the Florida Peninsula this weekend. From there, it might turn northeast and hug the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas early next week.
There is the possibility this system might slow down, or even stall, somewhere near northern Florida or near the Southeast coast, which could prolong impacts.
(The lines on this graphic represent several of the many track forecasts from various computer models. This is not an official forecast, but these are used as guidance for creating the projected path.)
Impacts to Florida begin this weekend, then possibly spread to the Southeast coast early next week. The system is likely to enhance rainfall in Florida as soon as this weekend. Heavy rainfall could linger in Florida early next week, while also spreading up parts of the Georgia and Carolina coasts. That means at least localized flash flooding can be expected in all of those areas.
Gusty winds and coastal flooding could also accompany this system, with the details of those impacts hinging on how well organized it becomes.
If this system slows down or stall, it could prolong impacts, both near the coast and somewhat inland, particularly heavy rain. The slower a tropical system moves, the much greater the rainfall. A study released last year by the NHC found rainfall flooding was responsible for the most direct U.S. deaths from tropical storms and hurricanes since 2013.
The potential rainfall outlook shown below will likely change in future updates depending on the track of this system.
(This should be interpreted as a broad outlook of where the heaviest rain may fall. It could shift in future updates depending on how well organized this system becomes as well as its future track.)
How favorable is the environment for development? This rather large tropical disturbance will have to interact with land along the way, particularly Hispaniola and Cuba, but also possibly Florida. So, it may take some time for one area of thunderstorms to persist over water, lower surface pressure and begin the process of developing a tropical depression, if that happens at all.
However, computer models suggest wind shear may be relatively light, and there’s plenty of warm ocean water ahead of this system to fuel its development near the Bahamas or the Gulf of Mexico. These are both ingredients favorable for development.