By: Insight Crime
October 22, 2024
The strength of Colombia’s powerful AGC criminal group will pose a serious challenge in nascent peace negotiations, according to a recent report, raising concerns the group lacks genuine interest in peace and may use the talks to solidify its criminal clout.
The nonprofit Fundación Ideas Para la Paz (FIP) published a report on October 7 about the Gaitanist Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (Autodefensas Gaitanistas de Colombia – AGC), also known as the Gaitanistas or Clan del Golfo, outlining the group’s growth over the last decade and how it complicates prospects for peace talks that restarted earlier this year.
The AGC had agreed to a ceasefire with the Colombian government in early 2023, but unsurprisingly, it did not last. A few months later, the talks abruptly ended after a series of attacks by the AGC in the department of Antioquia prompted the government to issue arrest warrants for AGC leaders. The government restarted discussions with the armed group on July 8 about formalizing peace negotiations and suspended the warrants in late August.
Starting peace talks with the AGC is a major step forward for President Gustavo Petro’s “Total Peace” plan, which has sought demobilization agreements with Colombia’s main criminal actors. But despite that breakthrough, any further progress will prove challenging.
The AGC was formed by dissidents from the United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (Autodefensas Unidas de Colombia – AUC) who abandoned the group’s demobilization process in 2006 and created their own paramilitary group. In the years that followed, they recruited heavily, growing in size and influence to dominate key transnational drug trafficking routes in Colombia.
Below, we highlight three main takeaways from the document — how the group has expanded its membership and territory, adjusted its structure, and continued to demand recognition as a political actor — and explain how these factors impact prospects for peace with the group.
The AGC’s strength could help or hinder peace negotiations
The AGC’s sheer power and territorial strength increase the group’s leverage and pose a threat to Petro’s negotiations with other armed groups.
In the last five years, the AGC has nearly doubled in size to more than 7,000 members, between fighters and militia, making it the nation’s largest armed group, according to the report. As it has grown, FIP reports, the group has expanded its territorial control to 238 municipalities in 18 of Colombia’s 32 departments in 2024, from 179 municipalities in 10 departments in 2018.
FIP investigator Paula Tobo, who co-authored the report, said that without the group’s genuine participation, lasting peace would be impossible.
“The Clan could be the strongest group in the country,” Tobo told InSight Crime. “The Clan’s territory is so extensive — like a third of the country.”
The AGC’s dominance poses a serious threat to ongoing peace negotiations, including talks with the National Liberation Army (Ejército de Liberación Nacional – ELN) and dissidents from the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia – FARC). As long as the AGC maintains a stronghold, no other group is likely to disarm.
The AGC’s growth and ongoing territorial battles also raise significant questions about whether it is truly focused on achieving a negotiated peace with the government or more interested in solidifying its criminal operations. Ceasefires with the government could be seen as tactical moves rather than a commitment to disarm, furthering their territorial control as extortion and violence continue.
Criminal groups that have agreed to a bilateral ceasefire with the government have an advantage over their rivals — they have one less front of conflict. That means reduced pressure and breathing room to focus on bolstering resources and gaining ground while keeping up the appearance of progress at the negotiating table.
The AGC’s structure will complicate peace talks
The AGC’s decentralized structure adds another layer of complexity to peace talks and makes it harder for leaders to ensure that rank-and-file and mid-level commanders adhere to potential agreements, a factor that increases the risk of defection.
The AGC used to be structured under one leader — Dairo Antonio Úsuga, alias “Otoniel” — who controlled certain cells directly, and absorbed other semi-autonomous criminal groups as AGC “franchises.” This helped the group grow rapidly.
But as key leaders were captured after the government launched its 2015 Operation Agamemnon against the group — among them Otoniel in 2021 — the AGC became weakened and fractured.
In the last few years, the group has reorganized and “resumed direct control in different regions of the country,” the FIP reported. It now operates under a six-member Joint Chiefs of Staff (Estado Mayor Conjunto), with leaders rotating through different territories as a protective measure. Local criminal groups that had partnered with the AGC have been absorbed or eliminated.
However, on the whole, the AGC maintains a decentralized structure. While this has been a successful model for expanding criminal dominance, it complicates the government’s negotiations with the AGC as past attempts have sparked internal divisions among the group’s leadership.
Even if the group reaches a deal with the government to lay down weapons, in-house fighting could lead mid-level commanders to splinter off and continue their criminal operations.
“The Clan has many ways of operating in the country — each block, each cell has its own way of operating,” said Tobo.
3. Lack of legal grounds for negotiations is a non-starter
While a new round of dialogue is a positive step, the possibility of a formal peace process is slim.
“The biggest challenge is that the parties have very different expectations of how this dialogue process is going to go,” said Tobo.
The main point of disagreement centers on the legal framework for pursuing peace. The AGC wants a transitional justice process, including a non-extradition guarantee and amnesty for its members.
But this type of process is reserved for groups considered “political actors.” The FARC demobilized in 2016 under this framework, and it currently applies to the ELN and the EMC, comprised of dissidents from the 2016 peace process with the FARC.
The government, however, classifies the AGC as a “high-impact organized crime armed group.” As such, the Submission Law (“Ley de Sometimiento”) applies, under which the criminal group surrenders or lays down arms in exchange for benefits, such as reduced sentences.
“They have been really clear that this is not the peace process they want,” said Tobo. “They don’t want something as extensive as the ELN, but they want something that’s not a submission justice process … They want recognition that they are not just another group.”
To minimize ties to its paramilitary past, the AGC changed its name from the Gaitanist Self-Defense Forces of Colombia to the Gaitanist Army of Colombia (Ejército Gaitanista de Colombia) in January. But the government has not changed its categorization of the group.
And with only half of President Petro’s term remaining, these negotiations also face a race against time.