By: Kimberly Ramkhalawan
May 20, 2022
Another early start to the rainy season might just mean a bumper hurricane season for Caribbean islands. This week saw two of the region’s meteorological centres declaring the start to the rainy season while providing its predictions on how intense this year’s hurricane season will be.
While the National Hurricane Centre based in Miami, which is responsible for dispatching the hurricane hunter aircraft for surveying storms out at sea had indicated its start of monitoring activity for Hurricane season for 2022 by May 15, officially the season should not start until June 1.
Chief climatologist at the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service (TTMS) Kenneth Kerr says while it has its predictions of the number of storms likely to form, they have designated an area of interest for Trinidad and Tobago, however, the likely range is 2 to 5 tropical storms forming in the area.
TTMS presented its 2022 Hurricane Season Forecast during the Fourteenth National Climate Outlook Forum (NCOF XIV), which was hosted virtually, included all other disaster preparedness agencies where Kerr urged for increased preparation this year, as he anticipates this year’s rainy season to ‘volatile and erratic’. Despite a relatively dry start to the rainy season, Kerr says rainfall is expected to increase in the coming months particularly the second half of the rainy season. Meanwhile, he added that tropical storm activity is likely to peak between August and October, with a greater chance for August-September seeing heightened storm activity.
In Barbados, Deputy Director of the Barbados Meteorological Services, Brian Murray launching the season officially this week shared that they are predicting some 19 named storms of which nine will likely to become hurricanes, with four anticipated to become Category three hurricanes. He cited this outlook based on what the national hurricane centre based in the United States.
He says this is subject to change based on atmospheric pressure conditions, while the 2022 season comes following 2021 being recorded as the third most active season in history and the sixth consecutive year for above normal activity.
As for freak storms similar to what the island experience in July last year which took them all by surprise, Murray says these kinds of storms are becoming more frequent, and cautioned to be on the lookout for frequent lightening flashes occurring, a strong indication that a mesoscale convective system or mesocyclone tornado that developed. Something Murray says has only seen occur in the United States. Back in July 2021, Caribbean Magazine Plus had recorded BMS acting director, Sabu Best characterizing such a storm as a quick developing system that speeds up quickly and disappearing just as fast, bringing intense rainfall, and its met service recording over 490 lightning strikes per minute, and a total of 46,290 strikes were recorded by the end of the event. However, Murray says Barbados is expected to be able to have more accurate forecasting in the mix, as it recently commissioned the newest Doppler radar at Castle Grant, St Joseph improving its early weather warning systems.
According to the National Hurricane Center, both the Atlantic and the Central North Pacific hurricane seasons run from June 1 through November 30.