By: Staff Writer
November 2, 2021
Natural disasters are making COVID-19 containment more difficult states a United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) report.
ECLAC, in its “Disasters and inequality in a protracted crisis,” report states that: “The Caribbean is one of the most disaster-prone regions in the world. Unlike Central and South America and even other groups of small island developing States (SIDS), Caribbean islands are especially vulnerable to climate change and extreme weather events —which usually have nationwide impacts— because of their small size, geographical location and population density close to the coast. This recurring high exposure and the vulnerability to natural hazards have resulted in tremendous costs in terms of loss of human lives, productive assets, physical infrastructure, output supply and product demand, especially in agriculture and tourism. The COVID19 pandemic has added a new dimension to this vulnerability, as Caribbean countries must now confront the economic and social fallout of their efforts to control the spread of this disease.”
The report also said: “The COVID-19 pandemic is considered a disaster that combines a biological threat with other vulnerabilities associated with the organizational and response capacity of health systems, with the existence of informal sectors and inequalities, and with social work practices and public transport. This combination has resulted in one of the worst global economic and social upheavals in recent decades, which is expected to be directly reflected in higher unemployment rates and increased poverty —the two main historical drivers of vulnerability in the Caribbean (ECLAC, 2021c). The pandemic has weakened the ability of governments to address any negative shocks to their long-term economic, social, and environmental viability and to sustain social spending. It has left Caribbean countries in a much more precarious position should they be struck by future disasters caused by natural hazards, which are recurrent in the Caribbean.
“ECLAC has projected that the Caribbean economies will contract on average by 6.2 percent, with downturns ranging from 5 percent in Haiti to 12.3 percent in Antigua and Barbuda.”
It is estimated that the largest impact is being felt in the service sectors of tourism, aviation, hotels and accommodation, restaurants, entertainment, and commerce. “Businesses’ income has declined significantly, making access to credit difficult and in many cases leading to definitive closure. In some countries, construction has also been hit hard by delays and the great uncertainty surrounding new projects. It will take at least two years for economic activity to return to pre-pandemic levels, and the recovery will be slower than after the 2008 crisis. Furthermore, as mentioned in chapter I, the COVID-19 pandemic has reinforced existing social inequalities, which may translate into higher vulnerability to disaster risk,” it added.
The report continued, “According to the Small Island Developing States Accelerated Modalities of Action (SAMOA) Pathway, SIDS ‘continue to grapple with the effects of disasters, some of which have increased in intensity and some of which have been exacerbated by climate change, which impede their progress towards sustainable development.’ This scenario, coupled with the intersectionalities of socioeconomic vulnerabilities, emphasizes the precarious situation of the Caribbean subregion and its capacity to effectively mitigate and adapt to these disasters. COVID-19 has now brought into focus the need for the Caribbean to determine carefully how to build its resilience. The subregion must be supported in this effort by the international community, especially the international financial community, to prevent the loss of any socioeconomic progress.”
Historically, the subregion has experienced mainly hydrometeorological and geological hazards, including tropical storms, hurricanes, floods and droughts. For the period 2000–2021, the Caribbean recorded 326 disasters associated with natural hazards, with the highest incidence in 2004 and 2017 (30 and 29 disasters, respectively). Hurricanes Irma and Maria (2017) and Hurricane Dorian (2019) devastated national infrastructure across 10 Caribbean islands and prompted a humanitarian crisis in the subregion, leaving the islands of Dominica flattened like a nuclear blast after Maria hit and with Dorian, the entire Northern part of the island of Abaco was destroyed with hundreds feared dead.
The report also noted, “The subregion is also characterized by high exposure to geological hazards, such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and tsunamis. Frequent seismic activity is concentrated along the Antilles Arc, from the island of Hispaniola to Trinidad, where the Caribbean Plate overrides the North and South American Plates. One of the most destructive earthquakes ever recorded occurred in Haiti in 2010; it affected more than 3.4 million people in total, killing more than 200,000 and injuring over 300,000. In addition, there are 19 live volcanoes in the Eastern Caribbean, whose activity has cost human lives and had tremendous negative economic impacts. The most recent eruption of La Soufrière in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, in 2021, has already affected over 24,000 people on the island, as well as others in the neighbouring islands of Barbados, Grenada and Saint Lucia, owing to ash plumes and the spread of sulfur dioxide.”
Earthquakes have been more frequent in the past 10 years, leading up to an eruption of the LA Soufriere volcano in St Vincent and the Grenadines, but with minimal death toll of under 20 people. In Haiti on the other hand, they experienced an earthquake earlier this year that was larger than the 2010 earthquake at 7.2, leaving over 2,000 dead.
“With most Caribbean economic activities located in risk-prone coastal zones, there is increased exposure to tsunamis and other coastal hazards such as strong winds, ocean surges, floods and heavy rain. Activities such as tourism, fishing and maritime trade, which account for a significant share of GDP, are conducted near the coast, and more than 70 percent of the population lives in low-elevation coastal zones, resulting in high exposure to sea level rises. Around 45 percent of the populations of Barbados, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago live within 5 kilometres of the coastline, while more than 20 percent of the populations of Antigua and Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, British Virgin Islands, Grenada, Guyana and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines inhabit areas below 5 metres above sea level. In Suriname, nearly 70 percent live below the 5-metre mark.
“On any given day, more than 500,000 people are potentially at risk along coastal areas, which is more than twice the official estimates of loss of life in the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Disasters have a greater impact on the most vulnerable, notably women, youth, older persons, persons with disabilities and migrant populations, who disproportionately and increasingly bear the brunt of their effects. Therefore, climate change and disasters may be seen as combining to perpetuate and widen social inequalities.”
On the economic front, ECLAC noted, that “in addition to these vulnerabilities associated with high exposure to climate change and climate-induced hazards, the Caribbean subregion has grappled with long-standing structural constraints. In fact, in terms of the impact of disasters as a proportion of GDP, 9 of the 10 countries and territories most impacted by economic losses anywhere in the world during the period 2000–2019 are in the Caribbean.3 This illustrates the high impact disasters have on small economies, where one single event may cause nationwide devastation, as was the case when Hurricane Maria struck Dominica in 2017, causing damage and losses equivalent to 226 percent of the country’s GDP. It is, therefore, evident that disasters represent an existential threat for several SIDS, as one event can derail an entire country’s economy and development trajectory.
“The economic situation of the subregion has been characterized by decline in foreign direct investment, limited capacity to mobilize domestic resources and high levels of public debt. The Caribbean’s average public debt over the period 2010–2019 was 70 percent of GDP, suggesting that debt has been a long-standing challenge for the subregion. The fiscal deficits caused by COVID-19 will only increase the level of public debt
“Correlated to these multidimensional vulnerabilities and despite improvements in living standards across the subregion in recent decades, major challenges to human development and social cohesion persist. These include high levels of poverty, unemployment, inequality, population ageing and non-communicable diseases. In addition, the high rates of youth unemployment, further exacerbated in a context of recession, have implications for socioeconomic well-being, including in terms of crime and violence, threatening social cohesion in many Caribbean countries
“Recognizing that the health and climate crisis has particularly impacted Caribbean SIDS, which recurrently and disproportionately bear the brunt of unsustainable development models, a renewed call is being made for transdisciplinary action and for the formulation of indices that may adequately capture their unique vulnerabilities. In 2020, in the context of the global COVID-19 pandemic, the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) and the United Nations reiterated the need to develop a multidimensional vulnerability index for small island developing States, to be presented at the General Assembly in 2021. Such an index will support the reconsideration of eligibility for concessional financing to SIDS on the basis of vulnerability rather than income criteria alone.”