By: Staff Writer
August 3, 2021
Vaccination rates in the Caribbean region is only at 11.3 percent says the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) in a recent report, citing structural challenges as the root cause for this as it marches towards a “lost decade.”
ECLAC, in their special COVID-19 report titled, “The recovery paradox in Latin America and the Caribbean,” said that as of June of this year, more than 1.26m people had died from COVID-19 in Latin American and Caribbean countries, in what is the most severe health crisis in the region’s recent history. This figure represents 32 percent of all deaths worldwide —almost four times that of the region’s global population share of 8.4 percent. Unequal access to vaccines and health services (between countries and among social groups), compounded by the emergence of new virus variants, heighten the uncertainty surrounding the future course of the pandemic and the subsequent opening and recovery of the countries’ economies.
However, with regard to vaccination rates, the Caribbean region ranks as one of the lowest with only an 11.3 percent vaccination rate, something ECLAC says is spread unevenly between Caribbean countries with St Kits and Nevis ranking the highest with 33.6 percent and Haiti ranking at the lowest with 0 percent, with Haiti having opted not to get involved with the vaccination process through the World Health Organisation’s COVAX facility.
ECLAC says that this low vaccination rate could exacerbate the structural problems like inequality, poverty and low investment and productivity if economies begin to grow amid these structural problems.
The report says they are forecasting growth of 5.2 percent for the entire Latin American and Caribbean region in 2021, which will not be sufficient to regain the level of output recorded in 2019 The dynamics and persistence of growth from 2021 onwards are subject to uncertainties arising from uneven progress in vaccination processes, and the ability of the different countries to reverse the structural problems underlying the slow growth path they were on prior to the pandemic.
Suriname is expected to have negative growth in 2021 at -1 percent of GDP with the Bahamas registering just 1 percent growth of GDP. Guyana, however, bolstered by oil, will see dramatic GDP growth by 16 percent coming off of a record setting year in 2020 with 43 percent GDP growth.
Not all Caribbean and Central American countries are as fortunate as Guyana is right now with their recent oil find as many still depend heavily on tourism and foreign direct investment.
The report also said: “The growth forecast for 2021 reflects the low base of comparison resulting from the 2020 slump and the positive effects of stronger growth worldwide. The latter has boosted external demand, particularly from the United States and China, which, in conjunction with rising commodity prices, economic reopening and the easing of physical distancing measures, has fuelled recovery.
“An average growth rate of 2.9 percent is projected for Latin America and the Caribbean in 2022, which represents a slowdown from the previous year’s rebound. There is nothing to suggest that the weak growth dynamics prior to the crisis will change. The structural problems that weighed on the region’s growth before the pandemic have worsened; and they will hamper the recovery of economic activity and labour markets beyond the growth rebound in 2021 and 2022. In terms of per capita income, the region remains on course for a lost decade.”
The report also warned that there will be higher poverty and higher inequality will persist into the economic recovery in 2021 and 20221.
Job losses and the reduction of labour incomes in 2020 affected broad population groups, especially the lower-income segments. The poverty rate is estimated to have reached 33.7 percent, and the extreme poverty rate 12.5 percent. This would mean 209m people living in poverty (22m more than in 2019) and 78 million in extreme poverty (up by 8m). As a result, the income distribution has become more unequal, with the Gini index rising by 2.9 percent.
Food insecurity also increased in 2020 across the region as 40.4 percent of the region’s population experienced moderate or severe food insecurity as an additional 44m people in the region who became either moderately or severely food insecure, of whom 21m were in the severe category.
Despite the doom and gloom on many fronts, the report suggests strategies in dealing with this crisis and said that the countries that have made rapid progress in the vaccine roll-out are lifting restrictions and moving beyond current spending measures to cope with the emergency and designing the contours of post-pandemic societies.
“Political activism during the pandemic has generalized an attitude in favour of long-term expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, usually matched by new approaches to production policies, the labour market and welfare.
“Development strategies for recovery include specific sectoral orientations with an emphasis on sustainability, industrial policy and greater national or regional self-reliance, to take advantage of trends that have been accelerated by the pandemic and to adapt to the current geopolitical environment.”