By: Staff Writer
January 17, 2025
A recent report from the America’s Quarterly, says that the return of Donald Trump as president of the US is the biggest question mark amid what otherwise seems like a fairly placid outlook for the region this year.
The report also said: “In other ways, the region looks resilient. GDP growth is forecast at around 2.3 percent this year, up slightly from 2024. Inflation is coming down, as are interest rates in most countries. Unemployment and poverty are also broadly in decline. Argentina seems poised to return to growth, and some Andean nations are also expected to do better. The region’s two giants, Mexico and Brazil, look shakier—with Trump’s policies one of the reasons why.”
Pointing to Guyana, the report noted: “The world’s fastest-growing economy, Guyana, is slated to hold general elections in November, and it is widely expected that President Irfaan Ali will be reelected for a new five-year term after a contentious vote in 2020.
“Enjoying the oil wealth to fund broad government spending on infrastructure and social programs, Ali’s People’s Progressive Party/Civic (PPP/C), may gain a more decisive majority in parliament from the current 33 of 65 seats.
“Leaders from civil society have been pushing to hold a referendum to renegotiate the nation’s production-sharing agreement with the ExxonMobil-led consortium before the elections, but it’s unclear if the three main political parties will agree on the matter.
“Poverty levels remain high. Last October, Ali announced measures to distribute part of Guyana’s oil wealth, providing one-off $1,000 cash payments to each household, free university tuition, and minimum wage increases. After 44 percent GDP growth in 2024, the IMF predicts a 14 percent expansion this year. This would boost nominal GDP to $24.5 billion, a 410 percent increase compared to 2018, before Guyana’s oil boom.
“With the globe’s highest level of oil reserves per capita, crude production is currently at 650,000 barrels per day (bpd), and several additional projects are expected to raise output to 1.4 million bpd.”
With regard to the Dominican Republic, the report said: “President Luis Abinader is a popular pro-business conservative focused on fighting graft and bolstering economic growth as violence escalates in neighboring Haiti.
“Elected on an anti-corruption platform in 2020, Abinader won reelection with 57 percent of votes last May. His Partido Revolucionario Moderno and allies secured 60 percent of municipalities in last February’s elections and have a wide majority in both houses of Congress.
“Abinader’s administration has taken a tough stance on Haiti’s crisis, constructing a $120 million border wall and announcing a goal of deporting Haitians living illegally in the Dominican Republic, at a rate of 10,000 per week.
“Abinader has called on the international community to provide additional assistance, and in December, he said that the Kenya-led security mission in Haiti has not been implemented as planned. The Dominican Republic is one of the region’s fastest-growing economies, with 5 percent growth forecasted for 2025.
“The IMF has called for a comprehensive fiscal reform to attract more investment, boost revenues, and achieve investment-grade status. Abinader introduced a fiscal reform bill last October, but following protests and criticism he withdrew it later that month, citing a lack of consensus. The country will host the next Summit of the Americas in Punta Cana this December.