By: Staff Writer
November 29, 2024
The World Bank in their Country Climate Development Report for the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS) said that OECS countries face through multiple vulnerabilities—physical, social, and economic—and how they may deepen with climate change.
The OECS countries of Dominica, Grenada, Saint Lucia, and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, “are all highly exposed to natural hazards and climate change, which directly affect a large portion of the land, assets, and population. Moreover, the high exposure to external macroeconomic shocks makes the management of natural disaster shocks even more difficult,” the report said.
The report also said: “Climate change is expected to lead to the intensification and increased frequency of natural hazards, with important economic impacts. Current and expected future damages from these events are large across all four profiled islands, subject to significant uncertainty, and unevenly dispersed. Analysis done for this report1 suggests that the most severe economic losses for infrastructure result from floods and hurricanes. Dominica is most at risk, followed by Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.”
It continued: “Median estimated annual losses through 2050 from floods are 9 percent of GDP in Dominica, 3 percent in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines and 2 percent for each of the other two countries. Within the 95 percent confidence interval, it is possible for those losses to roughly double. Median GDP losses from hurricanes (based on historical frequencies and intensities) are lower than those for floods; in Dominica they reach around 3 percent of GDP by 2050. That said, within the 95 percent confidence interval, those losses could be as high as 23 percent within that period.”
The report added: “Climate change will also bring slower‑onset impacts, such as rising temperatures, ocean acidification, sea level rise, beach erosion, land loss, salinization of groundwater, and reduced rainfall, all of which carry profound consequences. These processes can erode the productive capacity of the OECS economies by affecting key drivers of economic growth, through direct and indirect channels. Climate impacts can disincentivize private investment on the expectation of future damages, further undermining development trajectories.”
It also said: “High exposure to climate shocks and disasters across the OECS countries presents a challenge for sustained poverty reduction, which can hinder the achievement of these countries’ development objectives. Poorer and vulnerable populations are often disproportionately affected by climate shocks.”
The region would need to increase social protection as well as adapt to the changes and challenges that climate change presents.